If you’ve been following conversations on X this year, you likely already know that the Dangote Refinery IPO is going live real soon — (soon as in September 14th). And depending on who you listen to, it’s either the investment opportunity of the decade or something best left to people who actually understand how the markets work.
To get a real sense of how people feel about the IPO, we spoke to five Nigerians across varying levels of investment experience: a fixed income trader, an oil and gas professional, a trainee associate at a law firm, a marketing executive, and a digital marketer. They share their takes on whether this opportunity is worth investing in now or best observed from the sidelines.
If you’re still catching up on what this IPO actually is, our introductory guide to the Dangote Refinery IPO covers everything you need to know: what a refinery is, how an IPO works, and what to look for when the prospectus goes live. Read that first if you need context, then come back here to see what people think.
Femi, Fixed Income Trader
Femi buys and sells treasury bills, FGN bonds, and eurobonds for clients. He was tracking the Dangote Refinery IPO before it became hot topic, after hearing about it from people in his circle. “I heard about it from my friends, senior colleagues, and from my boss in particular, who is an industry expert,” he says.
He thinks the refinery is a net positive for Nigeria. “We have a lot of FX savings from Dangote Refinery, if not, by now we would have been paying through the nose.” In his view, the refinery has reduced Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel and has started generating export revenue, which matters a lot when the naira is under pressure. He’s also unbothered by the monopoly concern: “People think Dangote is monopolistic, but who cares? I prefer a monopolist that can give me what I want.”
He’s investing and holding. “This is an asset that yields, that is very operational, processing 700,000 barrels per day” he says. “You can see without even meeting with the fundamentals, that this is a working asset. And the fact that it even exports to Europe and the Americas tells you it’s a viable business.”
He draws a useful historical line. MTN Nigeria’s listing on the NGX is now trading at many multiples of its IPO price. For him, Dangote can be a similar story — if you think in decades, not months.
He was aware of the private placement with early investors like Femi Otedola way before the public found out. While his first instinct is caution, he tempers it with optimism. “I think it’s not much of a red flag because if they (private placement investors) come in, they can’t sell at the IPO. They’re just coming in at a lower price.” Early placement investors have to hold for roughly a year before they can do anything with their shares. He also heard that Dangote plans to open the IPO beyond traditional stockbrokers, “enabling retail guys to invest in the IPO as well as through POS machines.”
But Femi wants you to understand that his conviction in the asset and his caution about how most people will approach it are two separate things. “Dangote is a no brainer from a first-level thinking perspective. Now, Second-level thinking requires diving deep into the pricing, into the real, actual fundamentals; into the entire weighted average cost of capital of the company.”
What does this mean for you? “Before you buy, you need to look at the company’s revenue, its cost structure, taxes, and —crucially— its debt. What if he (Dangote) owes a lot of credit and is using the IPO to pay those creditors back? How would that affect the refinery’s revenue? How would that affect the bottom line?”
He’s also wary of what happens when a popular story drives a stock price without solid fundamentals under it. “You find a couple of stocks on the Nigerian Stock Exchange that are pretty much appreciated and nothing is pushing it because somebody mentioned it on X and every other retail guy is buying and propping it up. And after a while, you think you’ve made money because the market on the stock has moved 20% up, but the fact is that you can’t sell. It’s just paper money.”
His advice? Don’t let the FOMO rush you into the IPO if the numbers don’t support your entry point. “People should take a deep dive into understanding the drivers of a stock, same goes for all asset classes. If you don’t understand, don’t go into it. And in a bid to understand it, seek expert opinions, ask research analysts, use Google, use AI. Learn from it, and ask lots of questions.”
Jabar, Oil and Gas Professional
Jabar doesn’t follow the Dangote Refinery from a distance. On the day we spoke, he had a ship berthed at the refinery, waiting to load 10,000 metric tons of jet fuel. “If I don’t speak to Dangote (the employees, not the man himself — he specifies), my day hasn’t started.” He’s visited the facility many times, speaks regularly to people in the commercial and shipping departments, and heard the IPO was coming from the Dangote team themselves — before it was announced publicly.
His admiration for the project is built from proximity. “It’s fantastic. If you ever find the time to go (see the refinery), you will be marvelled. It’s such an audacious project.” He notes that Dangote has said publicly that if he had the foresight to know how hard building would be, he actually would not have done it because there were so many challenges involved. What impresses Jabar is that it happened anyway. “Over the last year especially, the refinery has stabilised. They are pretty much supplying all of Nigeria’s needs in terms of gasoline, gas oil and jet fuel. The jet fuel is so much that it’s being exported.”
On the IPO itself: “It’s great that they are opening the door to Nigerians, it’s nice to be a part of something so mega.” On investing in it, though? He hasn’t decided. “I haven’t decided yet… I need to do some more research.” He’s clear about one thing, however: “It’s not a short-term investment. It’s not like you put in your 100k and think you’d have 250 in two months. I don’t think that’s what this type of investment will be.”
It’s worth noting that in Jabar’s professional life, he moves large amounts of money across commodity markets every day — ships, cargoes and other transactions that come with real exposure. But with his own savings, his approach is different. “As a trader, you’re taking so many risks with a lot of money that isn’t yours. So with my own money, I’m a bit risk-averse. I’m looking out for what you would call almost guaranteed stuff, like treasury bills and the S&P 500.”
For first-timers excited about the IPO, he has one piece of advice: “Control your excitement. Don’t think you will cash out big, at least not immediately. Do your own research. Read articles and ask questions.”
Promise, Legal Trainee Associate
Promise works as a trainee associate in a law firm in Lagos. He also trades crypto, follows Web3 developments, and has been watching the Dangote IPO discussion build on X since someone he trusts flagged it early.
His position is sceptical. “The Nigerian stock market is largely overvalued right now, and Dangote’s refinery even more so.” There’s also a practical issue that he thinks too many people are skipping over: “I’ve not seen any prospectus yet. So, I cannot really commit to anything without knowing exactly what I’m putting my money into.”
If the prospectus drops and the numbers make sense, he’s open to reconsidering. He already knows what he’d look for: “How much exactly is being made available to the public? And what price is the public entering into it? And what’s the capacity for growth?” His point is simple — if you’re buying at a high valuation at the beginning, then there isn’t much room for growth except the NGX expands, which could take years.
He also asks a question worth sitting with. “In the next 10, 20 years, will the world still be so reliant on oil? Will they shift towards more renewable energy sources?” To him, these are factors to consider if you’re committing to an asset you plan to hold long term.
His general investment advice is pretty direct: “Don’t do it because other people are doing it. Try and ask yourself why you’re putting your money inside this thing. Make informed choices. You should be wise with your money, and choose the right time to invest.”
Ucha, Marketing Executive
Ucha writes a weekly newsletter about money: how people spend it, how they make it. She first discovered the IPO through the business pages of Punch, then saw where Dangote addressed it directly in a public interview months ago.
She is already planning to invest through one of the companies listing the refinery, and uses an investment app for her regular trades. “I know that the refinery is going to be quite useful to our economy. So I’m planning to save up some money and invest once the IPO opens.”
In the past, she has made real money on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. “Last year I made a lot of money. This year as well. No matter how small — 200k, 400k, it’s important for me. ”
When we asked whether Nigerians should participate in the IPO, she said something that applies to all investment decisions: “Follow your heart, and do your research yourself. If you want to, fine. But if you don’t want to, it’s also fine.” There’s no obligation, you have to make your call.
Even with the IPO on the horizon and plans to invest, Ucha doesn’t stop thinking about where else her money can work. “If I have the money, I’m going to put it somewhere. It’s always good to put it somewhere it increases in multiple folds.”
Chike, Digital Marketer
Chike found out about the IPO the way most people did. “It’s on X. People are talking about it at work. It’s just everywhere.”
He thinks the refinery is doing something genuinely useful for Nigeria. “It’s helping to decentralise oil and gas. Some people may claim it will monopolise things, but I think if it helps reduce costs then that’s a good thing.” He also notes that fuel stations linked to Dangote tend to have more competitive prices.
But he’s not buying into the IPO right now. His reason is specific: “While it is a fantastic idea, I feel like a lot of players are going to be in it for all the wrong reasons. People would definitely be interested. So they would invest a lot of money and then pull the rug out of a lot of people’s feet. At least for the early investors.” He’d rather observe first how the listing plays out before he makes a move.
If you’re thinking of this as your first investment, he pushes back on that too. “I don’t think it’s for new investors. If you’re someone that’s just starting out investing, I don’t think you should start with the Dangote IPO. I think you should start very lightweight with trusted businesses over time and then slowly get into it.”
His core investment philosophy is one line: “Save before you start to invest. Investments are not as flexible as having a high-yield savings account. Once you have been able to build a routine, then you can invest from your interest. Don’t follow trends because you really do not understand the foundation and the root of that trend. It might be something that once you enter, you lose a lot of money.” He tells me that he’s not against the IPO, just against the rush.
So, where do you fall in all this?
Are you like Femi, focused on fundamentals? Does Promise’s concern about entry valuation resonate with you? Do you want to simply invest like Ucha, observe like Chike, or learn more about the offer first, like Jabar?
The prospectus is yet to arrive. When it does, you should read it first, before making a decision to subscribe. Look at the valuation, debt, dividend structure, and exactly how much equity is being offered. Reading our introductory guide to the Dangote Refinery IPO will help you understand what to look out for.
ICYMI: Piggyvest will be one of the companies partnering with Dangote Refinery for the IPO. If you have an account, you can set money aside through your Flex Naira wallet, so you will be ready once the subscription window opens.
